2019-12-04

Agenda

  • Objectives
  • Goalie Overview
  • Goalie Performance
  • Goalie Contracts
  • Predicting Salary
  • Findings

Objectives

  • How good are goalies?
  • Do they work hard for the money?
  • How much to pay goalies?

Goalie Overview

  • We analyzed 187 goalies over the past 7 seasons

  • How many games do goalies play in general?

  • There are 58 goalies who actually played in the the NHL? (>40 games played)

Goalie Overview

  • Where are NHL goalies from?

Goalie Overview

Demographics

  • What do they look like (height & weight)?

Goalie Performance

Top 10 Averages By Goalies in the Last 6 Seasons

Goalie Performance

Top Goalies by Season

Goalie Performance

Worst 10 Goalie Averages in the Last 6 Seasons

Goalie Performance

Goalies that had a really bad season

Goalie Performance

How well the first placed team goalie performed

  • Red point is league average

Goalie Contracts

How much do goalies get paid and how has that changed over time?

Goalie Contracts

  • How are goalie contracts inflating?

Goalie Contracts

Who are the Top 10 paid players in the last 7 years?

Predicting Salary

Can we predict how much goalies will get paid?

  • Build multivariate regression model to predict contract average annual value
  • Make predictions and compare to actual contracts

Predicting Salary

Feature selection

  • Way too many predictors
reg_data %>% ncol()
## [1] 60

Predicting Salary

Calculate information gain for predictors and grab 10 highest predictors in information gain

## # A tibble: 6 x 11
##   play_continued_… x_on_goal unblocked_shot_… x_freeze   min icetime
##              <dbl>     <dbl>            <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl>   <dbl>
## 1                6      21.0               38     4.45    40    2400
## 2              376     788.              1498   179.    1569   94166
## 3              726    1639.              2844   384.    3000  179926
## 4               41      75.0              145    18.1    139    8023
## 5              241     533.               976   125.    1094   65647
## 6              844    1821.              3330   424.    3084  184714
## # … with 5 more variables: low_danger_shots <dbl>,
## #   high_dangerx_goals <dbl>, gs <dbl>, play_continued_outside_zone <dbl>,
## #   aav <dbl>

Predicting Salary

Build regression model with selected features

## # A tibble: 11 x 5
##    term                        estimate std.error statistic  p.value
##    <chr>                          <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>    <dbl>
##  1 (Intercept)                 686545.   110074.      6.24  9.13e-10
##  2 play_continued_in_zone        1228.     2698.      0.455 6.49e- 1
##  3 x_on_goal                     2157.     5600.      0.385 7.00e- 1
##  4 unblocked_shot_attempts      -1198.     1224.     -0.978 3.28e- 1
##  5 x_freeze                     20710.    20922.      0.990 3.23e- 1
##  6 min                          -2924.     5158.     -0.567 5.71e- 1
##  7 icetime                        -22.1      84.8    -0.261 7.95e- 1
##  8 low_danger_shots             -5425.     2578.     -2.10  3.58e- 2
##  9 high_dangerx_goals           -4783.    19989.     -0.239 8.11e- 1
## 10 gs                          351069.    49850.      7.04  5.90e-12
## 11 play_continued_outside_zone   -807.     2854.     -0.283 7.78e- 1

Predicting Salary

Model evaluation

## # A tibble: 1 x 6
##   r.squared adj.r.squared    sigma statistic  p.value    df
##       <dbl>         <dbl>    <dbl>     <dbl>    <dbl> <int>
## 1     0.556         0.548 1425037.      66.3 9.95e-87    11

Predicting Salary

Predictions

  • Sergei Bobrovsky: got paid $11M AAV when he signed this season
##       1 
## 5294396
  • Mikko Koskinen: got paid $4.5M AAV when he signed an extension
##       1 
## 4391092

Findings

  • Most of the goalies should probably get paid around $5 Million/year
  • How much a goalie gets paid is not always an indicator of how good of a player they actually are

Thank you

  • Questions?